In this lecture on __/__/__ , we learned about probability and chance. We tried many activities in order to test probability and the chances of things happening. One such example of this was the ‘McBuckman’s’ task.

We were asked to work out how many meal combinations were possible using this menu. I struggled with this in the workshop, so I’ve had another go and came up with the following:

It took me a long time to put this together, and I had to get a bit of help, but I completely understand now. What is most striking to me is that there are clear patterns forming in the options. I worked out that each combination would only start with either ‘Starter1’ or ‘Starter 2’, and there were only three options for main (‘Main 1’, ‘Main 2′, or’Main 3’), so I then knew there were 6 possible starter and main combinations. Adding on dessert options meant multiplying the 6 options by 2 to get 12 combinations, and then it was simply a case of getting the fancy pens out!

So where does probability and chance come into it? I’ll admit that I had no idea! The best I can come up with is the probability of getting different things on the menu if left to chance. What I mean by this is:

There are 2 possible Starters, therefore there is a 1 in 2 chance of customers choosing each one;

The same goes for the dessert, there is a 1 in 2 chance of the customers choosing each one;

There are 3 potential main courses, so there is a 1 in 3 chance of each one being chosen by the customer.

I find that this makes a lot of sense and in a made-up example my simple probability calculations are accurate. Except, in real life there would be many more variables to consider, such as popularity of different items, so ‘Starter 1’ may be a lot more popular with people so more people pick it. For example, the most popular meal in McDonalds is the Big Mac meal, less popular seems to be the Fillet-O-Fish meal. This means that realistically, the probability of customers choosing the Big Mac meal is significantly higher than the Fillet-O-Fish meal. Clearly it is significantly more complicated than it seems and this links in nicely to a previous post about demand planning {https://blogs.glowscotland.org.uk/glowblogs/klduodeportfolio/2015/11/17/demand-planning-and-logistics/}

https://www.quora.com/What-are-McDonalds-ten-most-popular-products