As I continue my journey through this module my eyes are continually being opened to new and exciting information and concepts. Who knew maths could be so interesting? The more I hear, the more relevant maths becomes, whereas my previous ideas about math never went any further than ‘I’ll never use that, why am I learning it?’, when really mathematical concepts surround us at all times.

So, what is probability?  It is in simple terms the measure of how likely a specific event will take place or not (E’s&O’s, 2018).  A simple example of this would be the flipping of a coin. Most of us have done this to help us decide who will do something when we know nobody wants to.  The whole “heads or tails, heads I win” scenario.

Now we probably never consider this being related to anything mathematical, we just do it and that is that.  However, the likelihood of flipping heads or tails is 50/50 therefore some math is involved but in a very simple form.  If we take another example, like the throwing of a dice for instance, it follows the exact same form, except this time there are 6 different outcomes, so if we wanted to roll a 6 the probability of us landing on it, is a 1/6 probability (mathsisfun, 2018).

Throughout recent inputs with both Johnathon and Eddie, they have sparked further discussion about the way our brains think about ‘randomness’ and I realised it is something I had never really considered before. However, when I thought more about it, I realised that they were correct.

As a species, we tend to think that even randomness must follow some sort of pattern. We cannot seem to get our heads around the fact that if we rolled a dice 4 times we could get a 4 every time or if we flipped a coin 7 times, we could get 7 heads in a row. We tend to think it is about time we rolled another number, or it is time for a different outcome but we must understand that every time we flip that coin it is the same 50/50 chance each time therefore with real randomness there is no one applying an order, only we as humans do this (Bellos, 2010).

So, let’s take a look at a chance game show, ‘Monty Hall Problem’.  In this game you are given the choice of three doors. Two doors have a goat behind them and one has a car, the prize everyone is waiting for.  You will be asked by the host which door you want to choose.  You pick one and then the game show host will open one of the doors you did not choose, revealing a goat.  From this you will be asked whether you want to stick or switch from the door you first picked, leaving you with a 50/50 chance? Well no, that is not the case.

It’s not? Why? Well initially, when all the doors were closed, and you were asked to choose one, there was a 1 in 3 chance of you choosing the door with the winning car.  Consequently, there is now a 2 in 3 chance that the prize is behind one of the closed doors.  When the gameshow host reveals a goat from one of the doors, we know that the car is not there, therefore the probability now only lies with the last door, meaning the chance of you picking the car is 2 in 3.  Hence why in reality you are twice as likely to win the prize by switching from your original door (betterexplained, undated).

In 2015, 66% of Scotland’s population gambled, that is over half of Scotland that have been involved in sort form of gambling (gamblingcommision, 2016) including playing the lottery, online gambling and casino venue gambling. However, what people do not know is that the casinos and slot machines are out to get you. The odds are stacked up against you and they understand human thinking as outlined above. When we gamble, we are losing money.  Even when we think we’re winning, it is usually us just breaking even (nfattc, undated).

Is gambling worth it? Whether it is gambling in its simplest form or whether we are doing it for big money in casinos, gambling is designed to have us lose. A way in which to overcome and beat gambling is simply by, you guessed it, using MATHS.  If you can work out the probability of you winning you are giving yourself a boost and a better chance to leave with the prize you desire. However, the only way to really win and beat the system is not to gamble.

References

Bellos, A. (2010) Humans find the concept of randomness very hard to understand, and this can get us into big trouble. Randomness fools us all.  Available at: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1334712/Humans-concept-randomness-hard-understand.html(Accessed: 30 October 2018).

Better Explained (undated) Understanding the Monty hall problem. Available at: https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/#!parentId=5766(Accessed: 30 October 2018).

Education Scotland (2018) Curriculum for excellence: numeracy and mathematics experiences and outcomes.  Available at: https://education.gov.scot/Documents/numeracy-maths-eo.pdf(Accessed: 30 October 2018).

Gambling Commission (2016) Levels of problem gambling in Scotland. Available at: https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/news-action-and-statistics/Statistics-and-research/Levels-of-participation-and-problem-gambling/Levels-of-problem-gambling-in-Scotland.aspx(Accessed: 30 October 2018).

Maths is Fun (2018) Probability. Available at:https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html(Accessed: 30 October 2018).

NFATTC (no date) Why gamblers never win. Available at: http://www.nfattc.org/why-gamblers-never-win/(Accessed: 30 October 2018).