Probability. What are the chances?

Probability is the measure of the likeliness that an event will occur. Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1. 0 indicates that it is impossible, and 1 indicates that it is certain. We also use percentages in probability as it can be easier to understand and easier to use. The higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that an event will occur. This is used widely in such areas of study such as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling and even in philosophy.

There is a general equation for probability, which is: probability of an event happening is equal to the number of ways an event can occur divided by the total number of outcomes. As an example of this, the probability of a die rolling a 4 would be 1 divided by 6. This is because there is only one face on the die with the number 4 on it, and there are 6 sides on a die. So the probability of this can be shown as: 1/6, 17% or 0.17.

Even though probability gives you an exact answer, it does not mean it is certain. Probability is a guide, not exact mathematics. The best example to see this is by tossing a coin. There are two sides on a coin, therefore the chance of getting heads or tails is 50%. Therefore, if I tossed a coin 100 times, I should get heads 50 times and I should get tails 50 times. This is not correct, there is a chance of this happening, but it is unlikely. The chance is that it will be close to 50% but it is more like to not be exact.

In probability there are some words which are used which we need to know to understand what a question is asking us. Experiment or Trial mean that an action is occurring which is uncertain, for example, tossing a coin or throwing dice are experimental. Other words which we need to know are, Sample Space, which is the showing of all possible outcomes of an experiment, so if we were looking at a deck of cards, we would need all 52 possible outcomes. Sample Point is just one of the possible outcomes. Using the previous example, it would be 1 of the cards. Lastly, the word Event defines a single result of an experiment. It is different from the Sample Point due to being able to have more than one outcome, for example, choosing a King from a deck of cards, or getting an even number while rolling a dice.

With this information I can now answer a question of probability as I can interpret the question understanding what the different terms are asking me for. I also have learned the equation to answer the numerical part of the question. I now feel much more comfortable using probability and would feel happy teaching it in a classroom.

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